The SpaceX Path to Mars
(hint: they don't need the Moon)
Elon Musk recently clarified where SpaceX’s Lunar Lander project fits in their Mars plans…
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875023335891026324
Everyone needs to understand what @elonmusk is saying here.
NASA (and every other government space agency on Earth) considers the moon (and/or some Lunar orbit) to be the gateway to Mars.
Traveling to Mars is like leaping from one freight train onto another as you zoom by every two years or so. Earth and Mars orbit the sun, but not together. Mars has a different orbital period than Earth, and they pass each other in their respective orbits about every 26 months. A flight to Mars happens by placing a spacecraft into a Solar orbit that intersects the orbital path of Mars at the same time that Mars and Earth are their closest…even then, the flight takes six months. Then Earth and Mars go off on their merry way to opposite sides of the Sun. So, anything or anyone that we send to Mars will be gone and untouchable for years with no coming back.
Imagine driving to the freeway to go to to Aunt Sally’s potluck, getting on the on-ramp, and only then remembering that you forgot and left the casserole on your kitchen counter. Now, imagine it’ll take at least six months to get to the next freeway exit to go back and get it.
Furthermore, Mars is three light minutes away from Earth at their closest point, so round-trip communication takes more than six minutes, much more when Earth and Mars are at opposite ends of the solar system from one another. At their furthest, the sun blocks the line of sight between them, making any communication impossible without a Solar-orbiting satellite visible to both to relay the signal.
For these reasons, many experts think Mars's unique human habitat hardware needs to be well-tested close to Earth for the entire multi-year length of a round-trip mission to Mars. The International Space Station orbits the Earth in a very convenient place for resupply and support, and several times in the past several years, that convenient orbit has been instrumental in solving problems that have arisen with the human habitat there. The ISS habitat relies on close support from Earth, which a mission to Mars would not have.
NASA’s planned Lunar Gateway project, an international partnership with other nations (not Russia), to which SpaceX is a very important launch provider, is intended to be the replacement for the International Space Station because NASA can’t operate and fund two major human spaceflight projects simultaneously (true story). It will orbit between 3,000 and 70,000 kilometers from the Moon, taking six and a half days to complete each orbit. The Gateway will not be continually occupied but will study the Moon while practicing long-term, deep-space human space flight both on the Gateway and on the surface of the Moon for something like EIGHT YEARS while they also build up the Gateway into an interplanetary spacecraft. Most of their access to the Lunar surface will be provided by a Lunar Lander variant of the SpaceX Starship currently under development. Then, they will fly the Lunar Gateway spacecraft to Mars. Even then, the Lunar Gateway spacecraft is not equipped to land on the Mars surface. That is the current NASA Mars plan. Many doubt that NASA even wants to land humans on Mars. If the Planetary Society has its way, humans will never land on Mars, but that’s a separate discussion for another time.
Other experts, including Elon Musk, don't see things that way. They want humans on Mars NOW, and for them, the only way to prepare for a human Mars mission at this point is to start sending human-rated spacecraft to Mars and test them that way. SpaceX fully intends to pave its own path to Mars that will bypass NASA’s Gateway and use lessons learned from its Mars efforts to inform its path to the Moon, not the other way around. Their Lunar Lander contract with NASA is a money-making shortcut to growth opportunity only, but SpaceX neither needs the money nor will wait for NASA’s Lunar Gateway. SpaceX has its own goal and plans to start a Mars colony, and that plan requires neither lunar missions nor landings. Their Mars plans run parallel to and independent of any of NASA’s Lunar ambitions and are not impacted by NASA delays. Also, regarding orbital mechanics, it is not true that Mars is easier to reach from a launch point on the Moon or Lunar orbit than from a launch point on Earth or close Earth orbit.
Elon’s funding for Mars will come from the offering of Starlink as a new publically traded corporation.
Elon’s hardware testing for Mars has been ongoing for over a decade and will likely be served mainly by reusing flight-tested components from its current spacecraft or soon-to-be-in-service spacecraft. I suspect they will test any unique Mars habitat needs on the same uncrewed test flight/s that they test their Mars spacecraft's flight and landing abilities. They will also learn from ongoing private space station projects that they will certainly provide launches for very soon, just as they have for the International Space Station. Humans have had a continually occupied space habitat for decades on the ISS, and many (including Elon) think that those lessons learned are more than adequate to prepare for Mars missions.
Don’t get me wrong. Mars is hard. It is the Skeleton Coast of spacecraft. The Mars surface, Solar orbit, and the Pacific Ocean are littered with failed attempts to reach Mars. NASA has figured it all out and has by far the most experience and most successful track record in doing Mars missions. I have always said that a partnership with NASA provides the best chance for any organization to send spacecraft successfully to Mars and that anyone who attempts a mission to Mars without NASA's involvement stands a much higher chance of installing a new crater on the surface of Mars than landing a spacecraft on it. SpaceX has already acknowledged this, and NASA has pledged whatever level of support Elon wants from them to further his Mars ambitions.
SpaceX DOES know that they need NASA’s help to get to Mars.
SpaceX does NOT think they must go through the Moon to get to Mars.